Playoff Predictions

By: Derek Pierce

The last month of the regular season was one of the most unpredictable finishes to a season since the playoffs were integrated. With three new winners, two of which were locked into the playoffs from outside the points picture in the last two weeks, nothing was certain until after the race at Darlington. However, we know have the full playoff field set for the Round of 16.

Round of 16 -

Harrison Burton - As good of a story it was for Burton to get the 100th win for the Wood Brothers despite not having a job next season, the reality of it is that they have not been nearly as competitive as anyone else in the playoffs at any point this season. While that Atlanta wildcard is in there and the 21 has shown strong speed on superspeedways, which is how they got into the playoffs, I don’t think it’ll be enough for him to leap over four other drivers unless he were to win.

Daniel Suarez - This choice could be a little questionable seeing as he is the reigning winner at Atlanta, but a track like that typically doesn’t see repeat winners just due to the nature of that type of racing. Trackhouse is also a team that has the capabilities of producing competitive cars and with Ross Chastain not being in the playoffs, it’s likely they put their best equipment into the 99 team rather than splitting it evenly. He’s also a solid road course driver with a top 5 at Watkins Glen just a couple years ago, but I don’t think Suarez has the competitive edge needed when thinking about the playoffs. When it comes down to it, I think every other driver has a higher capability to flip the switch when needed which will leave Suarez behind.

Joey Logano - To put it bluntly, Logano has been terrible this year. With only eight top-10s, this year is looking to be his worst since 2011. While four of them have come in the last ten races, his best finish outside of them is 19th at Richmond followed by a 23rd at Chicago with the rest of the finishes being outside the top 30. Does he show speed some weeks? Absolutely, he’s a two time champion driving for one of the best teams. However, he has been wildly inconsistent and if his regular season performance carries into the playoffs, it will be out in the first round. That said, Logano is one of those drivers that can flip the switch and become a championship contender out of nowhere.

Alex Bowman - Admittedly, this is a questionable choice. Obviously, Bowman has been the worst driver under the Hendrick banner for the entire year, but that doesn’t mean too much when the people you’re comparing him to are championship contenders. Even then, you start to look at the stats and it doesn’t look too good for him. Only 14 laps led compared to the 89 he led last season, but there’s something about that 48 team where they are able to run 15-20 for 80% of the race and then in the final run they get in the top-10. So I think just with points, they could possibly make a Round of 8 run, but when you try to consider how competitive this team has been in general, it is a very bleak outlook for the playoffs this year.

Round of 12 -

Chase Briscoe - This round definitely has my most bold predictions and Briscoe is one of them. Only three top-5’s on the season and didn’t get in the playoffs until the last possible chance doesn’t sound like someone who can beat four other drivers, especially when two of them are in championship level equipment, but there’s something about Briscoe and that team that makes me believe they can make a real run. Briscoe himself has a history of rising to the occasion when he challenges himself for example his last Xfinity Series season he stated that he needed to win eight races to earn a cup seat and he did exactly that. The first race back from the COVID break at Darlington, Briscoe was racing a prime Kyle Busch and beat him straight up after he and his wife went through a failed pregnancy. There’s more moments but when it matters most, Briscoe rises to the occasion and when you consider the overall funding that SHR has and that they will likely be funneling most of that into the 14 team, that car has the potential to be the fastest it’s been in the last few years. 

Austin Cindric - Similar to Bowman, Cindric has been the worst of his teammates who are championship contenders, yet I have him beating out Logano. When you look at the Round of 16 schedule we have a superspeedway and a road course. Those are the two types of tracks that Cindric has been competitive at. He has two top-5’s at Atlanta with two more finishes just outside of the top-10 and he’s been in the top-15 at Watkins Glen. I could easily see Cindric win one of these races or just finish good enough to point his way through. While the Round of 12 also has a road course and superspeedway, I think there’s just not going to be enough of a buffer for him and he’s going to need to be closer to the top-5 than the top-10 like the round before which is a very hard gap to make up when you look at everyone else he’s competing against.

Martin Truex Jr. - Coming into the season I thought Truex could get a win and be competitive to end his career on a high note. While he hasn’t been a slouch at all, he’s clearly a step behind everyone. The final push for the playoffs all the 19 team needed to do was to have a few decent points days, but they kept crumbling and their gap to the cutoff fell shorter and shorter each week to the point that they weren’t locked in to the playoffs until the end of stage 2 at Darlington where they were already out of the race from wrecking themselves within the first five laps. He’s good enough to get through the first round, but I think the competition around Truex has surpassed him and it’s just not going to be enough.

William Byron - As a diehard fan of Byron, it pains me to put him in this position, but man it’s hard not to. Despite having good speed almost the entire summer, the execution has been really poor. Whether it be falling to a poor strategy, losing spots on pit road in crucial pit stops, or getting involved in other driver’s messes, good finishes have been lost. All three tracks in this round are tracks that Byron has been really good at and they could easily win any one of them, but the luck hasn’t been there this year like it was the last couple of years. The playoffs are the most unpredictable format in all of sports so we have to consider a lot of factors when trying to predict the future and I think there’s a lot of factors that point to this team falling short this year.

Round of 8 -

Brad Keselowski - A lot of what puts Keselowski this far is experience. One of the most experienced guys in the field taking on one of the most unpredictable playoff schedules to date can have a huge advantage. It’s not just experience though. Throughout the entire year Keselowski has taken races where he was running outside of the top-15 and would end up finishing in the top-10. When you’re trying to navigate through the craziness that comes with eliminations by having those good finishes, being able to make the most out of a terrible day is a super valuable asset. However, Keselowski misses the mark for the Final 4 because I think at this point he just gets outpaced. Solid finishes can only get you so far; you need to truly be competitive and run top-5 for full races to have a real shot at making it.

Ty Gibbs - Gibbs has been super quiet this season in the best possible way. When looking at the points, Gibbs finished in the Top-10 of the standings despite being so close to the cutline. He’s made a huge improvement this season and it’s gone largely unnoticed. Gibbs has also proven that he has the ability to rise to the occasion in the past. In the 2022 Xfinity Series playoffs, Gibbs made the Championship 4 along with three JRM teammates. I bring this up because although Gibbs was put in a seemingly impossible situation with three teammates having the chance to work together to bring their team a championship, Gibbs went in and out drove all of them to win the championship. I think we can see a similar type of performance throughout the playoffs here for Gibbs to step up and perform on par with his teammates. Like the others in this round however, the others just have too much speed for Gibbs to keep up with which will lead to this elimination.

Chase Elliott - Elliott is a bit of a weird case because he has really put together a few strings of strong finishes, but lately that hasn’t been there. This entire team could easily turn that right back on for the entire playoffs and cruise to a second championship, but going off what has been shown rather than what they could do, a good finish here and there just won’t be enough when you look at what the other four are capable of. 

Ryan Blaney - Blaney showed last year that all you need to do is be good in the last 10 races to win the championship after a fairly lackluster regular season. This year has been roughly the same for him and I don’t doubt that he could go ahead and do it again, but just like Elliott, you have to base these predictions on what you have seen rather than what the driver is capable of because at the end of the day, a lot of these guys could win the championship but they just won’t all be able to compete for it. It’s clear the four drivers left are all a step above everybody else in the field and unfortunately that leaves Blaney out of it.

Championship 4 -

Denny Hamlin - Despite the penalty for the engine mishap, Hamlin is still one of the best in the field and he continues to prove it every week. I would be extremely shocked if he was not in the final four drivers. Unsurprising to some, I think this is another year where Hamlin has a clear shot at the title and just falls short. There’s something about this championship that has eluded him his entire career and this year just doesn’t feel like it’s going to break the streak.

Kyle Larson - Larson’s playoff point advantage already gives him a massive chance of making it through the rounds with just decent results, but when you pair that with him consistently competing for the win almost every week it creates an impossible scenario where he isn’t fighting for the championship at Phoenix. The main reason I don’t think he’s going to win the championship is because Larson makes a lot of mistakes that are his own fault and it has cost him a lot in this season. I think it’s going to cost him the championship, but he could have a flawless race and run away with a second championship and nobody would bat an eye.

Tyler Reddick - With an impressive streak of strong finishes Reddick managed to close the points gap to Larson which allowed him to win the regular season championship by a single point. This team hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down for any reason and I expect that to continue through the playoffs which will make him a strong contender for the championship. I think what knocks him out of being the pick to be the champion is that the winner is decided in one race and that has meant that they needed to win the race, except for last year. I haven’t seen enough in his Cup Series experience that tells me Reddick can clutch up and win when he needs to the most.

Champion -

Christopher Bell - Bell has been progressing to this point over the last few years. In 2022, he won the elimination race at Martinsville to put himself in the championship 4. In 2023, he won at Homestead to put himself into the championship 4 again. I fully expect him to make it once again, whether he wins or not. Over the last 10 races, Bell has had the best driver rating over anyone else in the field by two whole points. He has been on a tear and that should continue for 10 more races. Bell has also shown that he can win when he needs to with that Martinsville win mentioned before. If Bell does win it, I think it would be fully deserved as he has been one of the best drivers for the entire season and I don’t see how he isn’t at least very close to winning it.