Although Cindric has been steadily improving and has the potential to be a consistent and competitive driver, there has been much left to desire through his first three full time seasons. While his teammates have won the last three championships, Cindric has yet to have a season with 10 top-10s. He does have two wins, but the circumstances of those wins put an asterisk next to them when discussing his resume. The first win being the 2022 Daytona 500 which has become infamous for any driver being able to win and the other coming from Ryan Blaney running out of fuel on the last lap which allowed Cindric to pass him.
The upside of his Cup Series career so far has been his performance in the playoffs. Despite being extremely inconsistent through the regular season, he's able to rise to the occasion in the playoffs which has gotten him past the Round of 16 in each of his appearances. In 2024 he was able to earn four straight top-15 finishes, his best streak of the season, before having some bad luck and getting involved in incidents for the next two races which knocked him out of the running.
While he does have merit to his career so far, this season is truly make or break because of the success of his teammates while he struggles to perform consistently. If he can become a perenial top-10 contender almost every week and even compete for a few wins, this will be more justification for holding a spot in one of the best teams in the series. However, if he performs similar to how he has been once again, I think it's going to be time to consider whether he really has what it takes to be a Cup Series driver or if some of the younger prospects would be better.
Usually I wouldn't say someone that had just been promoted from the Xfinity Series has anything to prove and that they just need to take the time to learn, but Custer's case is different. He isn't entering this season as a rookie, but instead someone that was demoted for a couple of seasons and is now back at the top after some ownership changes and rebranding. The Haas Factory Team that Custer is entering is much different than the Stewart Haas Racing team that he had drove for. He now will be the only driver for the team and they have received a huge influx of revenue with the sale of their other three charters.
Custer had returned to form with the move down to the Xfinity Series where he won the championship in his first season back and was one of the most consistent drivers. Given his success down there and the fact that this is his second attempt at making something of himself in the Cup Series, the pressure is on for him to perform. I don't think this season needs to be some kind of all-time season for him, but he needs to show that he was the right guy to choose rather than keeping someone like Noah Gragson, Josh Berry, or Chase Briscoe.
Maybe this selection comes from bias to what I see on social media, but it seems that there's a lot of people out there that are skeptical of what Briscoe is capable of doing in a race car. Briscoe has proved time and time that he is capable of winning races, winning the final regular season race last season and being fairly competitive in 2022 where he could've had two more wins if he didn't drive a little over his head. This was often an argument used against Kyle Larson before he entered his Hendrick tenure and even still is. I'm not saying Briscoe is going to become the best driver in the series like Larson, but I think we're seeing something similar.
Briscoe entered a dying SHR team and the results he had gotten with them alone are impressive. In those years, Harvick was really about the only one who could even put the car in the top-10 for more than a few races a year apart from Briscoe. He was the clear second best driver on that team and when Harvick retired, he became the best.
Even still, it's hard to measure how well he's going to adjust to a completely new team and if the SHR car performance was completely to blame. I think even a single win that doesn't come from strange circumstances would be enough to say that JGR made the right decision.
Internally, I think the pressure on Bowman is there, but not nearly as bad as the media surrounding him has made it seem. With the full support of Ally and with all honesty, results that are at or above where you would want your 4th best driver to be, I highly doubt Bowman is even close to losing his seat anytime soon unless Hendrick gets the chance at a generational talent.
As mentioned, the external pressure is immensely on him and I would highly doubt that it doesn't weigh on him at all. As someone who has been critical of Bowman in the past, I think the only thing that I want to see from him is mid-race pace. Throughout a race he's often running barely inside of the top-15 or 20 but in the final stage after the last round of pit stops, his clutch factor allows him to drive up into the top-10 and salvage a good finish. If he can figure out qualifying better and running higher through the race, that clutch factor could get him into the top-5 rather than top-10.
When you combine the situations of Briscoe and Custer, you get what Ryan Preece finds himself in this year. Stuck in the failing cycle of SHR and being mired to the back of the pack aside from a few races. His short track background has become the clear specialty of his and with a new and better team in RFK Racing, we could see him being much more of a contender at them.
However, I think the pressure is going to only continue growing on him. He now has five full time seasons under his belt with JTG and SHR, which weren't the best in terms of competitiveness, and has very little to show for it. He has without a doubt improved with each year, but now that he's with a team that's proven they can at least contend for wins in the right situation, he has to be able to do the same to ease the pressure coming from the outside. Regardless of whether he shows it this season or not, I do think he's comfortably staying in the 60 car for the next few years simply for the Kroger sponsorship.