Daytona 500 Preview and Predictions

The Daytona 500 is the hardest event in sports to predict an outcome for. Factoring in the nature of superspeedway racing, the close quarters, bumper to bumper, side by side for all 500 miles at 190+ mph causing what we know now as “The Big One” which could take out any competitor at any moment and the weather that could delay or shorten the biggest race of the year giving us strategies for staying up front as long as possible. By far, the biggest factor is the fact that this is the race that everyone wants to win. Not a single person in the field is looking for hang back just to finish this race for a nice points day and then look ahead to Atlanta. Each driver in the field today is looking to win the Great American Race.

Currently the odds of getting this race in, is looking very slim. With a projected 84% chance of rain at the start of the race which doesn’t drop below 80% until 7pm where it hovers around 50% for the rest of the night, all according to Accuweather. While Florida has the most unpredictable weather in the nation, it looks like any time NASCAR attempts to dry the track, it will start raining before they finish.

Either way, the race will still happen and therefore there will be a winner. I’m going to do my best to do the impossible and predict the winner. Last year, the Fords and Toyotas all showed great speed compared to the Chevys in the duels which caused everyone to rule out any Chevy within reason. Yet Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in the #47 Chevrolet won the race. This year has shown almost exactly the same thing, except there’s not a single Chevy on the front row. In years past, it was Alex Bowman keeping this streak alive, but it died this year with Michael McDowell and Joey Logano claiming the front row. Then the next row is also claimed by a single manufacturer with Toyotas of Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell winning each duel.

With the mirrors of last year of ruling out any Chevy only for one to end up winning you’d think that’s my choice. Instead, I’m going off the eye test. I really liked what I saw from the Toyotas especially when you consider the drivers they have. Denny Hamlin has won this race three times alone and he owns two of the Toyotas in the field, one of which has a driver that’s finished in 2nd place twice and the other won the duel. Erik Jones’ first cup series win came at Daytona, Bell won the duel, and the newest Toyota driver is Jimmie Johnson, a 2-time Daytona 500 winner and 7-time champion.

With everything laid out, my pick is Christopher Bell. Bell has had a lot of speed at Daytona in the past and ran up front a lot, but would mess up his own race by causing a crash off a bad bump. I think the experience he has on these tracks, the speed of the car, and him being one of the most clutch drivers in the series today will culminate in winning the Daytona 500.

As a secondary choice to win, I’m going with Kyle Busch. Kyle was going to win last year before a late caution sent the race to overtime where Kyle was involved in a wreck, taking him out of the race. RCR is always a sure bet when it comes to Daytona and like I said earlier, Chevy always appears when you count them out.

If you’re a gambling man, there’s a lot of good bets out there for underdogs. Corey Lajoie (+3500) is a smart driver with a team that was given an investment of $50 million over the offseason. I expect a lot of speed from that team. There’s also last years winner, Stenhouse, at +3500, Austin Cindric who won in 2022 at +2800, and Bubba Wallace the two time 2nd place finisher at +2000. All of them are reasonable people to expect to win this race at crazy low odds.