Changes and Debuts: 2025 COTA Preview

By: Derek Pierce

To the relief of many fans and probably all of the drivers, the NASCAR Cup Series is heading to something other than a drafting track. Although it still stands at 2.3 miles long, we'll be heading to the Circuit of the America's road course in Austin, Texas. The long, winding turns of this track will offer a much needed change of pace from the racing (and officiating) of the last two weeks. 

Track Changes

The racing isn't the only thing that's changing though. COTA will be running a different layout than what has been previously run since 2021. While initially the cars would snake back and forth to reach the peak of the track before racing down the massive hill it's built upon, this year NASCAR has decided to cut that mile worth of track from the course. Now the cars will be taking a hard 90 degree turn in turn-6 which leads to a small chicane that brings that drivers to another 90 degree turn onto the back stretch. 

This change has been framed as a move "for the fans" as the race distance will increase by about 30 laps since lap times are expected to be around a minute faster. While this might have actually been a factor in the decision making, I do think there is some part of the equation that factored in that this will create a massive passing opportunity. While I love a track having these kinds of spots to pass, I'm not sure if cutting out one of the most technical parts of any race track we go to is the right way to do it. Seeing the drivers work their way through that section and then race down a massive hill was one of the best visuals we would get each year and now that's all gone. This will bring the cars closer together with such a huge braking zone and with that, gives the aggressive drivers of the series a chance to show that off even more. We've seen tons of failed divebombs at Chicago, Sonoma, and the Roval, and I think this corner is going to bring the same thing.

The Ringers and Their Odds

Racing phenom, Connor Zilisch, is the only driver who's serving as a true "road course ringer" this weekend as he's the only driver competing that isn't full-time in the series. He'll be piloting the Red Bull #87 for Trackhouse Racing, teaming him with the other road course guy, Shane Van Gisbergen, and the 2022 winner of this race, Ross Chastain. Not only does he have some extremely credible teammates to lean on, but Zilisch is no slouch himself; there's a reason he's making his Cup Series debut at just 18-years old. In his Xfinity Series debut last year at Watkins Glen, he started on the pole, led half the race, and stretched his fuel way longer than what anyone thought was possible en route to victory. Oh yeah, did I mention he also won the Rolex 24 at Daytona last year? This kid is the real deal and could easily have a full-time seat in the Cup Series next year. Vegas has picked up on this too, as for almost all major sportsbooks he's in the top three in terms of odds to win the race. While I don't expect him to go out and win just like that, just because of all the other road course aces in the field and the experience all the drivers already have at this track, even Van Gisbergen needed a little luck to win the first race at Chicago, I think Zilisch is going to put anyone who's unaware on notice of his true talent.

I mentioned Van Gisbergen a couple times already so let's get into how this race favors him. Coming from the Supercars series over in Australia, he's been known as the road course guy. He won at three of them last year in the Xfinity Series, so yeah that moniker has some validity to it.  Last year's race in Austin wasn't the barn burner performance that some were expecting, but he did show off some speed, running ninth in stage two before pitting where he was hit with a speeding penalty and couldn't quite recover after that ending with a 20th place finish. However, that was just his third race in a Cup car and has since made 13 more starts on both road courses and ovals. He's gotten much more experience with this car, this team, and NASCAR racing in general and I think all of that could cultivate to a much more impressive outing this weekend.

The last ringer on the list is one who's road course ability can be overlooked due to how long he's been running full-time in NASCAR, but AJ Allmendinger has grown to the point where he will always be a threat on these tracks, if the car allows for it. His three Cup Series wins have all come at road courses, Watkins Glen, Indianapolis, and Charlotte Roval, and the last two have come with the team he's currently driving for. We know this is a driver-team combo that is capable of winning races, but the only issue is that the team performance has just been off the last couple of years. We haven't seen them be real threats on both the Cup and Xfinity side, but even still, they have put up some good results with sixth place finishes at three different road courses, including COTA. I'm a little hesitant to put faith in whether the car will be good enough to contend, but Allmendinger has proven time and time again that he has what it takes to drag any car to it's best possible finish on these tracks so I'd keep an eye out for him.

Drivers To Watch

Tyler Reddick and William Byron - Normally I hate lumping drivers together for this kind of segment, but these drivers really have been the top guys at this track for the last two years and they're on this list for the same reasons. Reddick won the 2023 race and Byron won the 2024 race. But I don't put drivers on these lists just because they're past winners, no, these two have been duking it out for top dog for both years. With how much speed these two have shown not only at this track, but just in general for the last two years, I'm going to expect both of them right back at the top of the field. The question is whether if anyone can get close to touch them.

Alex Bowman - To some this might seem like a completely random pick. Bowman's not someone you really go into a weekend expecting to win the race and I even had him as one of my drivers with the most to prove this season, but there's one thing that gets missed. Bowman's average finish at COTA in the Next Gen car is third! Finishing second, third, and fourth in all three races with one of those being extremely close to a win if not for some aggressive moves from Chastain. Plus, Bowman's lone win last year came from a clutch performance at Chicago. If nothing else, Bowman is one of the most clutch drivers in the field and will turn a terrible race into a top-10 finish somehow. I fully expect him to be up front all day on Sunday and with that clutch gene, he may find himself in victory lane.

Austin Cindric - Maybe I should've put this guy in the ringers list, but given his general lack of a resume at the top level on road courses, I think he's slotted into just being one of those guys that is just better on road courses than ovals for the most part. But that doesn't mean count him out on these things, I mean they are still his strong suit. He's finished in the top 10 here twice in his three years of being a full-time driver. But what really makes me put him on this list is the fact that for the last two weeks, he has been hands down the fastest car on the track and got wrecked out of contention in both races. Cindric should be coming into this weekend with a vengeance to prove that he is someone to worry about and will be fast at more than just the superspeedways.

With the changes to the track, a rookie that has become one of the favorites to win, one of the best road course drivers getting more experience in the car, and all of the other drivers that have proven success here carrying momentum into this weekend, this race is set up to be one of the best we've seen at this track.